Paper industry market analysis box board and corrugated paper into competition focus

Source: Prospective Industry Research Institute

The supply-side reform has achieved remarkable results, and the industry concentration has been continuously improved.

In the past two years, due to the national supply-side reform policy and the policy of stricter environmental protection, the number of enterprises above designated size in the paper industry has decreased significantly in 2015, and the trend has been decreasing year by year in the following two years. In 2017, the number of enterprises above designated size in China's paper industry was 2,754. It is expected that under the influence of tight supply of raw materials and weak downstream demand in the market, some backward enterprises will be eliminated by the market in 2018.

From the perspective of industry concentration, according to the China Paper Association data, since 2011, China's paper industry market concentration has been rising, according to this trend, it is expected that CR10 will reach 40% in 2018; CR5 will be close to 30%.

Leading enterprises have outstanding production capacity, and box/corrugated paper is the focus of competition.

In the paper industry, the size of production capacity directly determines the level of competitiveness of enterprises. At present, the top enterprises in the domestic paper production capacity mainly include Nine Dragons Paper, Chenming Paper, Lee & Man Paper, Shanying Paper, Sun Paper and Bohui Paper. In terms of existing production capacity, Xiaolong Enterprise is far ahead of other companies and has a large competitive advantage. In terms of new production capacity, the newly added capacity of Nine Dragons Paper, Sun Paper and Bohui Paper are both over 2 million tons, while Lee & Man Paper has the least new capacity, only 740,000 tons.

In fact, from 2016, under the pressure of supply-side reform, the paper industry has continued to clear small production capacity; at the same time, under the catalysis of environmental protection, raw material supply has tightened, and raw material prices have risen, and small enterprises have profitability. Damaged, further speeding up production capacity. Leading enterprises have strong raw material acquisition capabilities based on capital and resource advantages, and their production capacity continues to advance, with significant competitive advantages.

More specifically, in the production capacity layout of enterprises, cardboard paper and corrugated paper are the focus of the company's production capacity, which is closely related to market demand. In 2017, the production of domestic boxboard and corrugated paper was 23.85 million tons and 23.35 million tons, respectively, and the output ratio was above 20%. The consumption also showed the same characteristics. It can be seen that the box board and corrugated paper are the current competition priorities of major enterprises.

In addition, from the production plans of the leading enterprises in the next 2-3 years, the production capacity of the waste paperboard and the corrugated paper are more, while the cultural paper is relatively rigid due to the demand, and the production capacity is relatively stable. It can be expected that the future competition of the future of box board and corrugated paper will be more intense.

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